Tropics - Energy Room

TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 06 12:23 ET

GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH90% / 7 DAYS

Gulf disturbance AL92 likely to become tropical depression, track toward northern Gulf Coast

Updated Tue Oct 6 12:20 PM ET — Tropics watch started

What changed

First outlook: broad low in southwestern Gulf of America (AL92)
Formation chance 90% through both 48 hours and 7 days
System expected to turn north/northeast toward northern Gulf Coast by week's end
Reconnaissance (NOAA Gulfstream, Air Force) scheduled to investigate system

Energy read

System is still over the southwestern Gulf with track uncertain, so no confirmed threat yet to offshore platforms, LOOP, Gulf Coast refineries, or LNG terminals. Watch for reconnaissance data and any NHC upgrade to a depression/storm as it turns toward the Florida Panhandle-to-Louisiana coast later this week.

Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.

NHC OUTLOOK MAP

NHC graphical tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf

Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 2:00 PM ET.

NHC outlook text (verbatim)

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.

The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Issued 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.