Tropics - Energy Room

TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 11 07:38 ET

GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH1 ACTIVE · 20%

Cabo Verde disturbance slightly more likely to develop; no Gulf threat

Updated Sun Oct 11 7:38 AM ET — 48-hour formation chance raised to 20%

What changed

48hr formation chance raised from 10% to 20%
7-day formation chance unchanged at 20%
Isaias now post-tropical near TN/KY border, no advisory change given
System still located near Cabo Verde Islands, far from Gulf/Caribbean

Energy read

No Gulf production, LOOP, Gulf Coast refining, or LNG terminals are in play; this system is far east near Cabo Verde Islands. Watch for any westward track development over the next week before assigning Gulf risk.

Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.

Active Atlantic storms

Storm	Wind	Pressure	Position	Latest
Potential Tropical Cyclone Isaias	23 mph	1010 mb	35.4N 85.9W	adv 019

NHC OUTLOOK MAP

NHC graphical tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf

Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 8:00 AM ET.

NHC outlook text (verbatim)

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located near the border of Tennessee and Kentucky.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Issued 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.