TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 06 14:04 ET
GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH100% / 7 DAYS
Southwest Gulf disturbance near-certain to develop, tracking toward northern Gulf Coast
Updated Tue Oct 6 1:38 PM ET — Formation chance raised to near 100%
What changed
- Formation chance through 48 hours raised from 90% to near 100%
- Formation chance through 7 days raised from 90% to near 100%
- Advisories likely later today or tonight, versus depression expected in a day or so
- NOAA added a second reconnaissance aircraft alongside Air Force flight tomorrow
Energy read
System still over southwestern Gulf, no confirmed track into major production, LOOP, refining, or LNG areas yet; Florida Panhandle to Louisiana remain the general watch zone. Watch upcoming advisories and recon data for track confirmation toward northern Gulf Coast infrastructure.
Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.
Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 8:00 PM ET.
NHC outlook text (verbatim)
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is en route to sample the environment over the Gulf this afternoon and Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
Issued 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.