TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 12 01:38 ET
GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH20% / 7 DAYS
Eastern Atlantic disturbance near Cabo Verde Islands, low development chance
Updated Mon Oct 12 1:38 AM ET — No change: formation odds unchanged at 20%

What changed

Energy read

No Gulf of America threat; offshore production, LOOP, refining, and LNG terminals are not in play. System is far east near Cabo Verde Islands with low odds and no track toward the Gulf; watch for any westward shift in future outlooks.
Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.
NHC OUTLOOK MAP
NHC graphical tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf
Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 2:00 AM ET.

NHC outlook text (verbatim)

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Issued 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.