TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 12 13:08 ET
GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH20% / 7 DAYS
Eastern Atlantic disturbance near Cabo Verde Islands, low 20% formation chance
Updated Mon Oct 12 1:08 PM ET — No change to formation odds, minor wording update
What changed
- Timing clarified: unfavorable upper winds expected by Tuesday
- Formation chances through 48 hours and 7 days unchanged at 20%
- No new storms active in the Atlantic basin
Energy read
System is far east Atlantic near Cabo Verde Islands, nowhere near the Gulf, LOOP, or Gulf Coast refining/LNG assets. Nothing actionable for WTI, Brent, or nat gas; watch for any westward track development over the next 7 days.
Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.
Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 2:00 PM ET.
NHC outlook text (verbatim)
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms occurring on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next day or so before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Issued 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.