TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 11 13:23 ET
GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH1 ACTIVE · 20%
No Gulf threat; low-chance disturbance lingers near Cabo Verde Islands
Updated Sun Oct 11 1:23 PM ET — Isaias dropped from outlook; Cabo Verde system wording firmed up
What changed
- Isaias no longer listed as an active system in outlook
- Rainfall outlook upgraded from 'possible' to 'expected' for Cabo Verde Islands
- Shower/thunderstorm area now described extending southwestward, not southward
- Formation chances unchanged at 20% (48hr) and 20% (7-day)
Energy read
No Gulf production, LOOP, refining, or LNG terminals are in play; the only tracked system is far east near Cabo Verde with low formation odds. Watch for any westward track extension or chance increase before this becomes Gulf-relevant.
Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.
Active Atlantic storms
| Storm | Wind | Pressure | Position | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potential Tropical Cyclone Isaias | 23 mph | 1010 mb | 37.5N 84.0W | adv 020 |
Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 2:00 PM ET.
NHC outlook text (verbatim)
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Issued 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.