TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 11 11:08 ET
GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH1 ACTIVE · 20%
Eastern Atlantic disturbance near Cabo Verde Islands, low formation chance
Updated Sun Oct 11 11:08 AM ET — No change from previous outlook
What changed
- Formation chance unchanged at 20% (48hr and 7-day)
- System still a few hundred miles SW of Cabo Verde Islands
- Upper-level winds expected to limit development by midweek
Energy read
No Gulf of America or Caribbean systems are in play; this disturbance is far east near Cabo Verde and not a threat to offshore Gulf production, LOOP, refining, or LNG terminals. Watch for any westward track change or upgraded formation odds in coming NHC updates.
Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.
Active Atlantic storms
| Storm | Wind | Pressure | Position | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potential Tropical Cyclone Isaias | 23 mph | 1010 mb | 37.5N 84.0W | adv 020 |
Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 2:00 PM ET.
NHC outlook text (verbatim)
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located near the border of Tennessee and Kentucky. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Issued 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.