TROPICS · NHC ATLANTIC + GULFbuilt Oct 12 19:08 ET
GULF / ATLANTIC WATCH20% / 7 DAYS
Disorganized Atlantic low near Cabo Verde Islands, low formation chance
Updated Mon Oct 12 7:08 PM ET — No material change; wording tweak only

What changed

Energy read

No Gulf of America threat; offshore production, LOOP, Gulf Coast refining, and LNG terminals are not in play. Watch for any westward track change or upgrade in formation chance in future NHC updates.
Auto-written from the NHC text when the outlook changes. Not a forecast.
NHC OUTLOOK MAP
NHC graphical tropical weather outlook for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf
Map refreshes on NOAA's side every 6 h (2a / 8a / 2p / 8p ET). Next outlook due 8:00 PM ET.

NHC outlook text (verbatim)

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large, but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Issued 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center · nhc.noaa.gov
Checked every 15 minutes; this page changes only when NHC's wording or an advisory number changes.